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Contents Letter from Judith Rodin. 4 Letter from Peter Schwartz. 6 Introduction. .8 WHY SCENARIOS? .9 WHY TECHNOLOGY?.10 THE FOCAL QUESTION 11 ENGAGING YOUR IMAGINATION . 11 The Scenario Framework. 13 CHOOSING THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES 14 GLOBAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT 15 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY 15 THE SCENARIO NARRATIVES . 17 Lock Step .. . 18 Clever Together . . . 26 Hack Attack . . . . .. . 34 Smart Scramble. . 42 Concluding Thoughts. . 49 Appendix . . . . . . 51

Letter from Judith Rodin President of the Rockefeller Foundation The Rockefeller Foundation supports work that expands opportunity and strengthens resilience to social, economic, health, and environmental challenges—affirming its pioneering philanthropic mission, since 1913, to “promote the well-being” of humanity. We take a synergistic, strategic approach that places a high value on innovative processes and encourages new ways of seeking ideas, to break down silos and encourage interdisciplinary thinking. One important—and novel—component of our strategy toolkit is scenario planning, a process of creating narratives about the future based on factors likely to affect a particular set of challenges and opportunities. We believe that scenario planning has great potential for use in philanthropy to identify unique interventions, simulate and rehearse important decisions that could have profound implications, and highlight previously undiscovered areas of connection and intersection. Most important, by providing a methodological structure that helps us focus on what we don’t know—instead of what we already know—scenario planning allows us to achieve impact more effectively. The results of our first scenario planning exercise demonstrate a provocative and engaging exploration of the role of technology and the future of globalization, as you will see in the following pages. This report is crucial reading for anyone interested in creatively considering the multiple, divergent ways in which our world could evolve. The sparks of insight inspiring these narratives—along with their implications for philanthropy as a whole—were generated through the invaluable collaboration of grantee representatives, external experts, and Rockefeller Foundation staff. I offer a special thanks to Peter Schwartz, Andrew Blau, and the entire team at Global Business Network, who have helped guide us through this stimulating and energizing process.