Contents

Letter from Judith Rodin. 4
Letter from Peter Schwartz. 6
Introduction. .8
WHY SCENARIOS? .9
WHY TECHNOLOGY?.10
THE FOCAL QUESTION 11
ENGAGING YOUR IMAGINATION . 11
The Scenario Framework. 13
CHOOSING THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES 14
GLOBAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT 15
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY 15
THE SCENARIO NARRATIVES . 17
Lock Step .. . 18
Clever Together . . . 26
Hack Attack . . . . .. . 34
Smart Scramble. . 42
Concluding Thoughts. . 49
Appendix . . . . . . 51

Letter from Judith Rodin

President of the Rockefeller Foundation

The Rockefeller Foundation supports work that expands opportunity and strengthens resilience to social, economic, health, and environmental challenges—affirming its pioneering philanthropic mission, since 1913, to “promote the well-being” of humanity.
We take a synergistic, strategic approach that places a high value on innovative processes and encourages new ways of seeking ideas, to break down silos and encourage interdisciplinary thinking.
One important—and novel—component of our strategy toolkit is scenario planning, a process of creating narratives about the future based on factors likely to affect a particular set of challenges and opportunities.
We believe that scenario planning has great potential for use in philanthropy to identify unique interventions, simulate and rehearse important decisions that could have profound implications, and highlight previously undiscovered areas of connection and intersection.
Most important, by providing a methodological structure that helps us focus on what we don’t know—instead of what we already know—scenario planning allows us to achieve impact more effectively.
The results of our first scenario planning exercise demonstrate a provocative and engaging exploration of the role of technology and the future of globalization, as you will see in the following pages.
This report is crucial reading for anyone interested in creatively considering the multiple, divergent ways in which our world could evolve.
The sparks of insight inspiring these narratives—along with their implications for philanthropy as a whole—were generated through the invaluable collaboration of grantee representatives, external experts, and Rockefeller Foundation staff.
I offer a special thanks to Peter Schwartz, Andrew Blau, and the entire team at Global Business Network, who have helped guide us through this stimulating and energizing process.

Leading this effort at the Rockefeller Foundation is our Research Unit, which analyzes emerging risks and opportunities and thinks imaginatively about how to respond to the complex, rapidly changing world around us.
This outward-looking intelligence function adopts a cross-cutting mindset that synthesizes and integrates knowledge that accelerates our ability to act more quickly and effectively.
It has also helped to shape and build the notion of “pro-poor foresight” that is committed to applying forward-looking tools and techniques to improve the lives of poor and vulnerable populations around the world.
I hope this publication makes clear exactly why my colleagues and I are so excited about the promise of using scenario planning to develop robust strategies and offer a refreshing viewpoint on the possibilities that lie ahead.
We welcome your feedback.

Judith Rodin President The Rockefeller Foundation

Letter from Peter Schwartz

Cofounder and Chairman of Global Business Network

We are at a moment in history that is full of opportunity.

Technology is poised to transform the lives of millions of people throughout the world, especially those who have had little or no access to the tools that can deliver sustainable improvements for their families and communities.

From farmers using mobile phones to buy and sell crops to doctors remotely monitoring and treating influenza outbreaks in rural villages, technology is rapidly becoming more and more integral to the pace and progress of development.

Philanthropy has a unique and critical role to play in this process.

By focusing its patience, capital, and attention on the links between technology and international development, philanthropy will change not just lives but the very context in which the field of philanthropy operates.

This report represents an initial step in that direction. It explores four very different—yet very possible—scenarios for the future of technology and development in order to illuminate the challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead. It promotes a deeper understanding of the complex forces and dynamics that will accelerate or inhibit the use of technology to spur growth, opportunity, and resilience especially in the developing world.

Finally, it will seed a new strategic conversation among the key public, private, and philanthropic stakeholders about technology and development at the policy, program, and human levels.

The Rockefeller Foundation’s use of scenario planning to explore technology and international development has been both inspired and ambitious.

Throughout my 40-plus-year career as a scenario planner, I have worked with many of the world’s leading companies, governments, foundations, and nonprofits—and I know firsthand the power of the approach.

Scenario planning is a powerful tool precisely because the future is unpredictable and shaped by many interacting variables.

Scenarios enable us to think creatively and rigorously about the different ways these forces may interact, while forcing us to challenge our own assumptions
about what we believe or hope the future will be.